KAZALCI OKOLJA

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Comparison of periods 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 on the chosen representative stations around Slovenia shows decrease of heating degree days by around 10 % and multiple increase of cooling degree days. With projected continuous temperature raise until the end of 21st century, those trends are expected to continue. Thus, in Slovenia, energy demand for cooling will increase in the warmer period of the year, while the energy demand for heating will decrease in colder period of the year. Same trend is projected for Europe in general.


Charts

Figure PP11-1: Annual heating degree days, Slovenia, 1961-2022
Sources: 

Slovenian Environment Agency, 2023

Show data

Kredarica[Kday]

Rateče[Kday]

Murska Sobota[Kday]

Novo mesto[Kday]

Ljubljana[Kday]

Bilje[Kday]

1961

7682

4363

2937

2873

1962

7935

4809

3527

3574

3347

1963

8245

5148

4044

3917

3736

2895

1964

7626

4552

3686

3550

3319

2502

1965

8101

4960

3588

3682

3464

2663

1966

7883

4682

3349

3239

3166

2496

1967

8035

4636

3204

3275

3124

2445

1968

7716

4490

3311

3146

3065

2372

1969

8065

4880

3637

3519

3438

2572

1970

8225

5039

3682

3654

3476

2680

1971

7943

4821

3446

3371

3277

2561

1972

7685

4722

3533

3570

3386

2580

1973

8095

4948

3800

3714

3584

2800

1974

7829

4619

3456

3321

3192

2554

1975

7958

4705

3295

3244

3177

2672

1976

7836

4603

3653

3536

3474

2694

1977

7947

4641

3229

3086

2960

2223

1978

8066

4979

3610

3503

3409

2662

1979

7960

5107

3755

3534

3553

2802

1980

8208

5022

3694

3496

3440

2822

1981

7866

4956

3640

3438

3503

2924

1982

8017

4785

3551

3419

3378

2871

1983

7514

4248

3053

2850

2937

2472

1984

7985

4917

3745

3509

3517

2962

1985

7998

4839

3757

3523

3440

2840

1986

7689

4627

3507

3421

3357

2689

1987

7920

5039

3866

3596

3568

2944

1988

7552

4299

3150

2979

2978

2451

1989

7359

4464

3250

3116

3110

2661

1990

7361

4383

3102

2950

2987

2707

1991

7991

4959

3574

3350

3295

2654

1992

7614

4397

3236

3138

3149

2692

1993

7243

4348

3241

3063

3019

2570

1994

7677

4447

3006

2899

2826

2315

1995

7498

4321

3172

3099

3012

2485

1996

7773

4655

3596

3350

3179

2586

1997

7766

4522

3438

3286

3068

2455

1998

7502

4236

3160

2961

2875

2425

1999

7668

4565

3317

3193

3074

2596

2000

7475

4157

3122

2993

2918

2498

2001

7404

3972

2647

2447

2463

1991

2002

7359

4296

3136

2984

2906

2400

2003

7584

4161

3400

3186

2950

2327

2004

7621

4658

3348

3197

3113

2564

2005

7670

4506

3338

3139

3049

2533

2006

7815

4765

3485

3269

3185

2579

2007

6878

3669

2563

2229

2146

1879

2008

7609

4417

3181

3119

3060

2509

2009

7682

4398

2925

2920

2870

2229

2010

7670

4288

3104

2997

2992

2440

2011

7580

4237

3123

3089

2862

2349

2012

7342

4109

3158

3047

2954

2491

2013

7484

4407

3091

3028

2899

2391

2014

7105

4005

2554

2367

2288

1731

2015

7433

3813

2672

2578

2523

2052

2016

7002

4156

2850

2736

2681

2252

2017

7239

4071

3180

2993

2822

2329

2018

7371

4239

2903

2778

2720

2333

2019

7214

4091

2893

2814

2607

2151

2020

6978

3950

2696

2481

2369

1981

2021

7393

4424

3108

2913

2911

2422

2022

7165

4215

3081

3001

2895

2486

Figure PP11-2: Annual cooling degree days, Slovenia, 1961-2022
Sources: 

Slovenian Environment Agency, 2023

Show data

Kredarica[Kday]

Rateče[Kday]

Murska Sobota[Kday]

Novo mesto[Kday]

Ljubljana[Kday]

Bilje[Kday]

1961

0

0

42

48

1962

0

0

25

22

47

1963

0

0

67

51

72

95

1964

0

0

13

13

38

92

1965

0

0

26

25

46

60

1966

0

0

13

15

26

64

1967

0

0

54

41

71

132

1968

0

5

41

36

53

77

1969

0

0

23

16

43

76

1970

0

0

36

28

70

97

1971

0

2

38

31

64

108

1972

0

0

31

28

37

96

1973

0

0

24

24

27

98

1974

0

0

51

45

63

108

1975

0

0

8

10

17

59

1976

0

1

17

26

31

56

1977

0

0

18

24

23

36

1978

0

0

3

10

9

34

1979

0

0

23

28

32

83

1980

0

0

14

26

36

52

1981

0

0

39

47

41

67

1982

0

0

20

38

55

130

1983

0

10

55

59

77

70

1984

0

3

14

28

26

23

1985

0

0

33

41

64

72

1986

0

1

37

42

63

95

1987

0

0

56

52

59

93

1988

0

0

72

77

107

108

1989

0

0

31

24

34

60

1990

0

0

30

44

58

65

1991

0

2

62

65

87

134

1992

0

6

145

94

123

139

1993

0

2

85

106

103

135

1994

0

7

109

121

145

229

1995

0

3

44

54

83

145

1996

0

0

31

36

47

72

1997

0

0

31

22

35

85

1998

0

5

90

116

153

204

1999

0

0

55

70

81

124

2000

0

1

131

144

129

132

2001

0

0

103

125

143

168

2002

0

10

86

75

91

134

2003

0

15

237

250

267

376

2004

0

3

46

62

83

129

2005

0

4

56

77

90

139

2006

0

19

110

142

159

209

2007

0

6

146

119

137

157

2008

0

3

107

100

128

170

2009

0

6

79

107

143

199

2010

0

17

108

127

144

157

2011

0

8

95

129

157

202

2012

0

14

166

189

218

306

2013

0

28

175

169

205

245

2014

0

1

67

68

80

82

2015

0

28

183

209

238

275

2016

0

4

85

101

138

218

2017

0

1

147

202

218

233

2018

0

13

120

96

174

228

2019

0

27

146

168

211

304

2020

0

5

66

99

121

172

2021

0

9

149

176

207

238

2022

0

12

132

174

279

401

Figure PP11-3: Timeline of change in average annual heating degree days in Slovenia over the 21st century
Sources: 

Slovenian Environment Agency, 2020

Chart note: 

The timeline of change in average annual heating degree days in Slovenia over the 21st century for three scenarios relative to the reference period 1981-2010. Bold coloured curves show smoothed model median and lighter colours show model spread. 

Figure PP11-4: Timeline of change in average annual heating degree days in Slovenia over the 21st century
Sources: 

Slovenian Environment Agency, 2020

Chart note: 

The timeline of change in average annual cooling degree days in Slovenia over the 21st century for three scenarios relative to the reference period 1981-2010. Bold coloured curves show smoothed model median and lighter colours show model spread. 

Figure PP11-5: Projected change in average annual heating degree days in Slovenia and the associated reliability of change
Sources: 

Slovenian Environment Agency, 2020

Figure PP11-6: Projected change in average annual cooling degree days in Slovenia and the associated reliability of change
Sources: 

Slovenian Environment Agency, 2020

Figure PP11-7: Projected linear trend in heating and cooling degree days in Europe  over the period 1981-2100
Sources: 

EEA,  2019

Chart note: 

These maps show the trend in heating degree days (left) and cooling degree days (right) from 1981-2100 under the RCP4.5 (upper panels) and RCP8.5 (lower panels). Projections are based on the median of an ensemble of 11 EURO-CORDEX simulations.


Other sources and literature

  1. Agencija RS za okolje, 2021. Temperaturni primanjkljaj in presežek ter kurilna sezona 1961-2023.
  2. Evropska agencija za okolje, 2021. Heating and cooling degree days.
  3. IPCC, 2014a: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1132 pp.
  4. IPCC, 2014c: Europe. Kovats, R.S., R. Valentini, L.M. Bouwer, E. Georgopoulou, D. Jacob, E. Martin, M. Rounsevell, and J.-F. Soussana, 2014: Europe. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Barros, V.R., C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1267-1326.